The November 2013 edition of the Asia Pacific Economic Outlook gives a near-term outlook for China, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand.
China: Reforms for the financial system?
Dr. Ira Kalish
China’s government has provided modest stimulus aimed at stabilizing growth, and there are indications this is working. However, the fact that bank lending accounted for less than half of credit growth is cause for longer-term concern: Shadow banking is expanding once again, possibly setting the stage for further trouble.
Japan: Tough policy choices amid good performance
Dr. Rumki Majumdar
Even though Abenomic policies are now positively affecting Japan’s economy, the prime minster is managing a tough balancing act: providing fiscal and monetary stimulus to improve long-term deflation and poor growth, while undertaking bold actions to improve government finances.
Malaysia: Clouds on the horizon
Malaysia’s economy has continued to expand steadily, but at a far slower pace than in the past three years. The economy is impeded by slowing investments as well as tepid exports, with a persistent fiscal deficit compounding problems.
Thailand: Stumbling in the growth lane
Thailand’s economy has been struggling this year, weighed down by slowing exports, weakness in domestic demand, and delays in government spending on infrastructure. Adding to worries is high household debt. Consequently, growth is expected to remain low this year.