The June 2013 issue offers a near-term outlook for China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
China: How fast China can grow is the question underlying discussion around China’s economy these days. With a new regime just installed, it could take some time to implement much-needed reforms. In the interim, China faces risks from local government debt and the shadow banking system, among others.
Japan: There has been good news for Japan’s economy: Real economic activities have shown strong signs of growth in the first quarter, while overall economic sentiments continued to improve in April. However, sustaining long-term growth will be a challenge because of substantial domestic and external risks.
South Korea: South Korea’s economy appears to be on its way up, as economic indicators and policy action point to improving growth prospects—economic and political risks notwithstanding. However, growth is not likely to move above pre-economic crisis levels.
Taiwan: Taiwan’s trade-dependent economy continues to struggle with lackluster growth, due to weak demand for its exports, even as domestic consumption is also poor. While the government is taking a series of policy measures to revive the economy, growth is likely to be limited to the 2–3 percent range for the year.